No-vig fair prices on Pinnacle odds drops

Every PinnWire drop record ships with nvp — the no-vig decimal fair price for that outcome, computed from Pinnacle's sharp market at that moment. 1 / nvp is the fair implied probability. It turns raw odds movement into a ready-made expected-value baseline.

See it live

curl "https://pinnwire.com/api/drops?mode=live&min_drop_pct=5&key=demo"
# latest Pinnacle price drops with no-vig fair price — public demo key, no signup

Each record pairs the new price with its fair price: (to / nvp) − 1 is the estimated edge. Feed it to +EV screens, value-bet alerts, prediction-market pricing models, or model calibration.

Where it comes from

PinnWire watches every Pinnacle outcome in real time (dropping-odds API). When a price falls, the alert carries the de-vigged fair price alongside it — REST to query, SSE to push, MCP tools for AI agents.

Honest limits

nvp is a model-derived estimate of fair value — an analytical input, never a prediction or promise of profit. It appears on drop records; for full-market de-vigging, compute from the odds endpoints' complete prices.

Questions

What is a no-vig (de-vigged) fair price?

Bookmaker odds include a margin (the vig, or juice). Removing it yields the fair price the market actually implies. PinnWire computes this for every drop record as nvp — the no-vig decimal fair price; 1/nvp is the fair implied win probability.

How do I use nvp for +EV or value betting?

Compare any bookmaker's price to nvp: (price/nvp) − 1 estimates your edge. Positive means the price beats the sharp no-vig baseline — the core of +EV (positive expected value) betting, value-bet screens and closing-line-value tracking. It is an estimate from Pinnacle's market, not a guarantee of profit.

Why base it on Pinnacle?

Pinnacle is the bookmaker whose prices betting models, arbitrage scanners and prediction markets most commonly treat as the sharp market reference — the closest public thing to a true price.