Every PinnWire drop record ships with nvp — the no-vig decimal fair price for that outcome, computed from Pinnacle's sharp market at that moment. 1 / nvp is the fair implied probability. It turns raw odds movement into a ready-made expected-value baseline.
curl "https://pinnwire.com/api/drops?mode=live&min_drop_pct=5&key=demo"
# latest Pinnacle price drops with no-vig fair price — public demo key, no signupEach record pairs the new price with its fair price: (to / nvp) − 1 is the estimated edge. Feed it to +EV screens, value-bet alerts, prediction-market pricing models, or model calibration.
A two-way Pinnacle market at 1.95 / 1.98:
| Decimal odds | Implied probability | |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 51.28% |
| Away | 1.98 | 50.51% |
| Total | 101.79% — the margin is 1.79% |
Divide each implied probability by the 101.79% total: 50.38% / 49.62% — fair probabilities that now sum to 100%. As prices that is 1.985 / 2.015, and that is what nvp delivers on drop records, computed from the live market rather than this static example.
Now price the same side at a soft book offering 2.05: (2.05 / 1.985) − 1 = 3.3% edge against the sharp fair price. That single comparison is the whole +EV workflow — and it is the reason the number is attached to the alert rather than left for you to derive.
PinnWire de-vigs proportionally (multiplicative normalization): every implied probability is divided by the book's overround. It is the standard baseline, it never produces impossible negative probabilities, and on two-way and three-way main markets it is within a few basis points of the fancier methods.
Its known limit: proportional stripping loads slightly more of the margin onto favourites, so longshot prices come back a touch too generous. Alternatives — power and Shin — exist precisely for longshot-heavy books. If your strategy lives on longshot props, compare methods before trusting any single de-vig output; the full de-vig guide walks through all four with runnable code. Whichever method you use, treat the result as an estimate, not a promise.
PinnWire watches every Pinnacle outcome in real time (dropping-odds API). When a price falls, the alert carries the de-vigged fair price alongside it — REST to query, SSE to push, MCP tools for AI agents.
nvp is a model-derived estimate of fair value — an analytical input, never a prediction or promise of profit. It appears on drop records; for full-market de-vigging, compute from the odds endpoints' complete prices.
Bookmaker odds include a margin (the vig, or juice). Removing it yields the fair price the market actually implies. PinnWire computes this for every drop record as nvp — the no-vig decimal fair price; 1/nvp is the fair implied win probability.
Compare any bookmaker's price to nvp: (price/nvp) − 1 estimates your edge. Positive means the price beats the sharp no-vig baseline — the core of +EV (positive expected value) betting, value-bet screens and closing-line-value tracking. It is an estimate from Pinnacle's market, not a guarantee of profit.
Pinnacle is the bookmaker whose prices betting models, arbitrage scanners and prediction markets most commonly treat as the sharp market reference — the closest public thing to a true price.
Proportional (multiplicative) normalization — each implied probability divided by the market's overround. It is the standard baseline, and the de-vig guide compares it with additive, power and Shin methods, including where proportional under-corrects longshots.